Hurricane ILEANA

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HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
800 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2012
 
THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF ILEANA HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY SINCE
OVERNIGHT...WITH A WARM SPOT OCCASIONALLY EVIDENT IN THE CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST.  A 1043 UTC AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOWS A RAGGED
DOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE OF THE INNER CORE.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE
4.0 FROM TAFB AND 4.5 FROM SAB...AND A BLEND OF THESE SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 70 KT.  THERE IS A SMALL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TODAY.  AFTER
THAT...ILEANA WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND
INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BE WITHIN
24 HOURS AND ILEANA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3
DAYS. 
 
THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 7 KT.  THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS ILEANA MOVES
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS
AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT SHOULD BEND MORE WESTWARD IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE GFS AND ECMWF
REMAIN AT ODDS WITH THE GFS SHOWING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...WHILE
THE ECMWF PREDICTS A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF THE
CYCLONE.  THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...BUT
FAVORS THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL WESTWARD MOTION SHOWN BY THE
EUROPEAN MODEL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 20.2N 113.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 20.9N 114.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 21.7N 115.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 22.5N 116.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 23.3N 117.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 24.0N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  03/1200Z 24.5N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  04/1200Z 25.0N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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