ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012 800 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HECTOR DIMINISHED AROUND 2100 UTC...REDUCING THE CYCLONE TO NOTHING MORE THAN A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS NOT YET BEEN ABSENT LONG ENOUGH FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW SOON AS IT CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER PERSISTENTLY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR...LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND A DRY AND STABLE MARINE-LAYER AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARBY STRATOCUMULUS FIELD. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST IN ABOUT 2-3 DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/04 KT. HECTOR SHOULD BE STEERED ON A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IN BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND MID-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES WEAKER/SHALLOWER IN NATURE...IT SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND MEANDER AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 20.2N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 20.9N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/0000Z 21.9N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1200Z 22.9N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z 23.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:24 UTC