Tropical Storm HECTOR
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TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
200 AM PDT WED AUG 15 2012
AN 0428 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT HECTOR IS BARELY HOLDING ON AS
A TROPICAL STORM WITH A FEW 30-35 KT WIND BARBS NOTED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE ASCAT PASS MISSED THE CONVECTIVE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING THERE AS WELL. HECTOR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY 15-20 KT OF EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...THE CYCLONE WILL BE
INGESTING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR AND WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER
SSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND HECTOR COULD BECOME A
REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS OBSCURED BY CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT RECENT
MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT HECTOR HAS MOVED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY. THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS 270/2 KT. HECTOR IS TRAPPED
WITHIN A WEAK STEERING REGIME BETWEEN A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
WELL TO ITS EAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INSIST THAT HECTOR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...ALBEIT
SLOWLY...LATER TODAY. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO
THE EAST AND NORTH ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST HAS
BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 17.2N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 17.9N 115.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 18.7N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 19.6N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 20.6N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0600Z 23.0N 120.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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