ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 12 2012 HECTOR IS A STRONGLY SHEARED TROPICAL STORM. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 45 KT AT 1200 UTC...BUT GIVEN THE POOR STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM IN EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 40 KT. ALTHOUGH HECTOR IS OVER WARM WATER...THE INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT THE STORM FROM STRENGTHENING SIGNIFICANTLY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN ONLY SHOWING MODEST STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING THAT TIME PERIOD CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LGEM AND INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. BEYOND A FEW DAYS...HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM AND WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS AFTER THAT. THEREFORE...STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER DAY 3. SATELLITE FIXES AND A SSMIS OVERPASS AT 1140 UTC SUGGEST THAT HECTOR WAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION...ALBEIT UNCERTAIN...IS 270/9. HECTOR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD WITH SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED AFTER 36 HOURS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF HECTOR WEAKENS DUE TO A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND POSITION AND TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 18.3N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 18.3N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 18.2N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 18.3N 113.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 18.7N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 19.4N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 20.3N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 21.0N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:24 UTC