ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012 1000 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012 THE LOW PRESSURE AREA PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THERE IS ENOUGH CIRCULATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES EARLIER THIS MORNING. THERE IS VERY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE DEPRESSION...AND CONSEQUENTLY ONLY A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE....AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD AND AMPLIFY. THEREFORE...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE CYCLONE WILL BE LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...AND IT COULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1700Z 17.5N 106.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 17.7N 106.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 17.7N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 17.5N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 17.5N 114.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 18.5N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:24 UTC