ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012 FABIO CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...HOWEVER IT IS STILL PRODUCING AN AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE SLOWING DECREASING AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. INCREASING SHEAR...COOL WATERS...AND AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE FABIO TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON...AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING WELL WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. FABIO IS STILL MOVING NORTHWARD...ALBEIT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED THAN BEFORE. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 6 TO 8 KT UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO...BUT A LITTLER SLOWER THAN...THE GFS MODEL. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FABIO IS STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THAT REGION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 23.0N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 24.2N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 25.7N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0600Z 27.0N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1800Z 28.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:20 UTC