Post-Tropical Cyclone EMILIA
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POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012
ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS LINGER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT CONSIDERED SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO MAINTAIN
EMILIA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...THE CYCLONE HAS LACKED
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS. EMILIA IS
THEREFORE CLASSIFIED AS A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW WITH AN
INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 30 KT.
THE REMNANT LOW OF EMILIA HAS GAINED SOME FORWARD SPEED...AND THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/16. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS AS THE WEAKENING
SYSTEM REMAINS IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATING IN 4 TO 5 DAYS...BUT THIS COULD
OCCUR SOONER AS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
EMILIA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 15.6N 138.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 16/0000Z 15.5N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/1200Z 15.4N 143.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0000Z 15.3N 146.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1200Z 15.2N 149.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1200Z 15.0N 155.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z 15.0N 161.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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