Tropical Storm EMILIA
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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012
CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED RECENTLY AS EMILIA MOVED OVER A TONGUE OF
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. EMILIA HAS NOT WEAKENED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TODAY WHILE EMILIA IS STILL INFLUENCED BY THE WARMER
WATERS. THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE BACK OVER COOL WATERS ON SUNDAY...
AND THE EXPECTED WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
EMILIA IS A SHALLOW CYCLONE WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROPICAL TRADE
WINDS. THEREFORE...A GENERAL TRACK TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 12 TO 14
KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 15.5N 131.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 15.5N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 15.5N 136.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 15.5N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1200Z 15.5N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1200Z 15.5N 147.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1200Z 15.5N 153.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z 15.5N 159.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
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FORECASTER AVILA
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