Tropical Storm EMILIA
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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR
THE CENTER OF EMILIA. HOWEVER...ASCAT DATA FROM SHORTLY BEFORE
0600 UTC SUGGESTED THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE STILL ABOUT 45 KT...SO
THIS VALUE WILL STAY AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED. A GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME LATER TODAY AS EMILIA MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT
36 HOURS...AND GIVEN THE RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS...THIS TRANSITION
COULD OCCUR SOONER.
EMILIA CONTINUES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE TO
THE WEST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THAT SPEED DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT IS STEERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.
THE NEW FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...
STAYING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0900Z 15.5N 130.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 15.5N 132.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 15.6N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 15.6N 137.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0600Z 15.5N 140.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0600Z 15.5N 147.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/0600Z 15.0N 153.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0600Z 15.0N 158.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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