Tropical Storm EMILIA
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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012
EMILIA CONSISTS OF A VERY TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A PATCH OF
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED
TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON A DECREASE OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS. SINCE MOST OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER
COOL WATERS...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND EMILIA COULD
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY OR EVEN EARLIER. SOME INTERMITTENT
BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP BEFORE DISSIPATION.
BECAUSE EMILIA HAS BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE CYCLONE
WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE WESTWARD AT 12 TO 14 KNOTS...STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/2100Z 15.5N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 15.6N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 15.8N 132.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 15.8N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/1800Z 15.8N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1800Z 15.5N 144.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1800Z 15.0N 150.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1800Z 15.0N 155.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
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FORECASTER AVILA
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