Hurricane EMILIA
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HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 AM PDT THU JUL 12 2012
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF EMILIA IS 280/11 KT. THE PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED TURN TOWARD THE WEST HAS FINALLY OCCURRED AND EMILIA
REMAINS ON TRACK. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
ON EMILIA MAINTAINING THIS SAME GENERAL MOTION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY
PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF EMILIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT WARMING OF THE INNER CORE
CLOUD TOPS. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATED EMILIA WAS AN
ANNULAR HURRICANE AND THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO POSSESS A
WELL-DEFINED 20 NMI DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KT IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB. EMILIA IS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF OF A NARROW
SEA-SURFACE THERMAL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THE CURRENT
WEAKENING PROCESS. HOWEVER...THE WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN USUAL FOR A HURRICANE THAT WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C
WATERS DUE TO THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. BY 72 HOURS...EMILIA WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-23C
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THOSE COOLER WATERS...IN COMBINATION
WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE
TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS
AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 15.2N 120.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 15.5N 121.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 15.9N 124.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 16.3N 126.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 16.6N 129.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 17.1N 134.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 17.5N 139.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/0600Z 17.5N 144.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
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FORECASTER STEWART
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