Tropical Storm DANIEL
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TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012
DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS THIS EVENING. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 35 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE
AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS. DANIEL IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION VERY SOON AND BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND REMAINS OVER
SSTS OF 24-25 DEGREES CELSIUS.
DANIEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION
IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE UPDATED TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE EVENLOPE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY.
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DANIEL SHOULD CROSS INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 15.4N 138.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 15.5N 140.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 15.5N 143.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1200Z 15.5N 146.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0000Z 15.5N 149.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0000Z 15.0N 156.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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