ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012 DANIEL WAS SHOWING HINTS OF AN EYE A FEW HOURS AGO IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES...AND THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE CONFIRMED BY A RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 KT TO 75 KT...AND DANIEL IS UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE DANIEL IS IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 26C. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE STABLE WHEN DANIEL MOVES FARTHER WEST. THE NHC FORECAST INDICATES GRADUAL WEAKENING FROM 36 HOURS AND BEYOND...CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE LGEM ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. DANIEL IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS MOVING 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND DANIEL SHOULD RESPOND BY MOVING FASTER TO THE WEST...ESPECIALLY BY DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 WHEN IT BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NHC FORECAST LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. DANIEL HAS NOT BEEN GAINING MUCH LATITUDE OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...AND THE ECMWF MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN DOING THE BEST JOB IN CAPTURING THAT MOTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 14.5N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 14.7N 118.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 14.9N 120.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 15.2N 122.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 15.6N 125.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 16.0N 131.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 16.0N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 16.0N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:15 UTC