ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012 DANIEL HAS NOT STRENGTHENED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A TIMELY AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 0455 UTC SHOWS THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TILT BETWEEN THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL AROUND T3.5...SO THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 55 KT. IT IS A RATHER TRICKY INTENSITY FORECAST THIS MORNING. DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH FAVORS STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR THE CYCLONE TO RESPOND TO THESE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF AND NOW KEEP DANIEL JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE GFDL AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE STILL MAKE THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE AND SO WILL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW...DANIEL WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATER INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN 36-48 HOURS WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 5 DAYS. THERE IS MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. DANIEL IS CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 14.6N 114.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 14.9N 115.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 15.2N 118.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 15.3N 120.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 15.5N 122.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 16.0N 127.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 16.5N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 16.7N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:14 UTC