ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012 800 PM PDT THU JUL 05 2012 A WINDSAT OVERPASS FROM 0116 UTC AND GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT DANIEL IS TILTED A BIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH HEIGHT. DESPITE THE TILT...DANIEL HAS STRENGTHENED...AND THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT. THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS THE SAME AS BEFORE...280/11 KT. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...KEEPING DANIEL ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GREATER-THAN-NORMAL AGREEMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. SINCE THE RI INDEX SHOWS A 3 IN 10 CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER 36 HOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW...BUT DANIEL WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 26C AND THROUGH A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FROM DAY 2 AND BEYOND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 14.4N 113.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 14.6N 114.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 14.9N 116.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 15.1N 119.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 15.4N 121.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 16.0N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 16.5N 132.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 17.0N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:14 UTC