ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012 800 AM PDT WED JUL 04 2012 THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS THE CONVECTION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. NIGHTTIME VISIBLE AND FIRST DAYLIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE A FEW SMALL SWIRLS HAVE POPPED OUT THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS...WHICH HAS MADE LOCATING THE CENTER SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS ASSUMED TO BE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS AND JUST INSIDE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED ON THE RAGGED APPEARANCE OF THE OVERALL CLOUD SIGNATURE...PLUS A T2.0/30 KT UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13 KT...BASED ON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE DEEPER EASTWARD STEERING FLOW OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO ITS NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE SHEAR TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. IN FACT...THE GFS...ECWMF...AND HWRF MODELS DEVELOP A RATHER ROBUST TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE 200 MB LEVEL BY 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE AT THAT TIME BASED UPON THESE MODEL DEPICTIONS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 13.1N 107.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 13.8N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 14.4N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 14.9N 112.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 15.0N 114.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 15.1N 118.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 15.2N 122.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 15.9N 127.4W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:14 UTC