Hurricane CARLOTTA
ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
0300 UTC SAT JUN 16 2012
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 7 33 47 60 68 70
TROP DEPRESSION 1 37 36 24 10 8 6
TROPICAL STORM 77 37 16 10 4 5 4
HURRICANE 23 19 15 19 25 19 20
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 15 10 7 8 9 5 5
HUR CAT 2 6 6 5 6 9 7 7
HUR CAT 3 1 2 3 4 6 5 6
HUR CAT 4 X 1 1 2 1 1 1
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 60KT 40KT 30KT 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
L CARDENAS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 10(18) 4(22) 1(23)
L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 7(16) 15(31) 4(35) 1(36)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 2(13) 1(14)
ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
ACAPULCO 34 3 21(24) 7(31) 4(35) 9(44) 4(48) X(48)
ACAPULCO 50 X 7( 7) 7(14) 3(17) 7(24) 3(27) X(27)
ACAPULCO 64 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 5(12) 1(13) 1(14)
P MALDONADO 34 71 8(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) 1(81) 1(82)
P MALDONADO 50 28 13(41) 2(43) X(43) 2(45) 2(47) X(47)
P MALDONADO 64 2 8(10) 1(11) 1(12) 1(13) 1(14) 1(15)
P ANGEL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
P ANGEL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
P ANGEL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
HUATULCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
HUATULCO 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
HUATULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN