Tropical Storm CARLOTTA
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TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 PM PDT THU JUN 14 2012
CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED NEAR THE CENTER TONIGHT...AND WELL-DEFINED
CURVED BANDS CONTINUE TO COIL AROUND THE CYCLONE. THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW REMAINS DEFINED IN MOST OF THE QUADRANTS. RECENT MICROWAVE
DATA INDICATE THAT AN INNER CORE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED BUT AN EYEWALL HAS NOT FORMED YET. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.5 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE RESULTING IN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS.
CARLOTTA IS ON AN UPWARD INTENSITY TREND...AND MOST OF THE
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR CARLOTTA TO BECOME A
HURRICANE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A 50/50 CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONCE THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
HIGH TERRAIN...IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
BEGIN. IF THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...THE WEAKENING WILL OCCUR MORE
RAPIDLY.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY CHANGE IN THE INITIAL MOTION...AND CARLOTTA
IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS. THE NARROW RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL
MODELS TO EXPAND IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE
CARLOTTA ON A TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST
BEYOND 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF CARLOTTA MOVING
VERY SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD COLLAPSE THERAFTER...AND CARLOTTA
WILL LIKELY MEANDER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IN GENERAL IS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT...
PRIMARILY BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF SOLUTIONS.
USERS ARE AGAIN REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK...AS ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 12.5N 94.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 13.5N 95.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 14.8N 96.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 15.7N 97.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 16.2N 98.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 16.5N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 16.5N 100.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 16.5N 100.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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