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Tropical Storm CARLOTTA


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
800 PM PDT THU JUN 14 2012
 
CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED NEAR THE CENTER TONIGHT...AND WELL-DEFINED
CURVED BANDS CONTINUE TO COIL AROUND THE CYCLONE. THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW REMAINS DEFINED IN MOST OF THE QUADRANTS.  RECENT MICROWAVE
DATA INDICATE THAT AN INNER CORE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED BUT AN EYEWALL HAS NOT FORMED YET. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.5 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE RESULTING IN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS.
CARLOTTA IS ON AN UPWARD INTENSITY TREND...AND MOST OF THE
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR CARLOTTA TO BECOME A
HURRICANE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A 50/50 CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONCE THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
HIGH TERRAIN...IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
BEGIN. IF THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...THE WEAKENING WILL OCCUR MORE
RAPIDLY.     

THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY CHANGE IN THE INITIAL MOTION...AND CARLOTTA
IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS. THE NARROW RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL
MODELS TO EXPAND IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE
CARLOTTA ON A TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST
BEYOND 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF CARLOTTA MOVING
VERY SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD COLLAPSE THERAFTER...AND CARLOTTA
WILL LIKELY MEANDER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IN GENERAL IS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT...
PRIMARILY BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF SOLUTIONS.

USERS ARE AGAIN REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK...AS ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 12.5N  94.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 13.5N  95.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 14.8N  96.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 15.7N  97.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 16.2N  98.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 16.5N 100.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 16.5N 100.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 16.5N 100.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:11 UTC