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Tropical Storm CARLOTTA (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
200 AM PDT THU JUN 14 2012
 
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE-E HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...
AND UW-CIMSS ADT. IN ADDITION...A 14/0409Z ASCAT OVERPASS CAUGHT
THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND REVEALED SEVERAL 34-KT
UNFLAGGED SURFACE WIND VECTORS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA. THE
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS BASED ON VALUABLE REPORTS FROM SHIP
V7DI7 LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/09 KT. CARLOTTA IS MOVING ON A
STEADY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AFTER THAT...
HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING A
RIDGE TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS. THIS BLOCKING
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FORCE CARLOTTA TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
WESTWARD AS IT NEARS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO BY 72
HOURS...AND POSSIBLY STALL IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF ACAPULCO BY
96 HOURS BEFORE DRIFTING BACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE OCEAN. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REFLECTS THIS NEW
TREND AS WELL. AS A RESULT...96- AND 120-HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS
HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THIS ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48
HOURS...AND IS THEN WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER THAT...AND
CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND
HWRF MODELS.
 
ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CARLOTTA TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH LAND. AS ALLUDED TO IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SMALL CYCLONE IS A VERY DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DEVELOPS FARTHER INTO THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THIS
SCENARIO WAS CONSIDERED FOR THIS ADVISORY...THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ALREADY ABOUT 10 KT ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AS WELL THROUGH 48 HOURS...WHICH IS
PLENTY ROBUST FOR ONLY A SECOND ADVISORY PACKAGE. HOWEVER...EVEN
THE HWRF AND ECMWF MODELS MAKE CARLOTTA A HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS...
WHICH ADDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NEW HIGHER INTENSITY FORECAST. AT
72 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN
DUE TO HOW MUCH CARLOTTA WILL INTERACT WITH THE COASTAL SIERRA
MADRE DEL SUR MOUNTAIN RANGE. IF CARLOTTA MOVES FARTHER INLAND THAN
EXPECTED...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN MORE THAN FORECAST...AND
VICE VERSA IF IT SHOULD INSTEAD REMAIN OFFSHORE.

BASED ON THE NEW TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT HURRICANE WATCH AREA. USERS ARE AGAIN
REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK AS TYPICAL NHC
FORECAST ERRORS AT 48 AND 72 HOURS ARE 80 TO 110 N MI.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 10.3N  93.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 11.4N  94.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 12.8N  95.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 14.3N  96.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 15.5N  97.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 16.6N  99.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 96H  18/0600Z 16.8N 100.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
120H  19/0600Z 16.3N 100.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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