Hurricane BUD

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HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
200 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BUD THIS
AFTERNOON FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE HAD WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE...AT BEST...WITH A MEASURED MAXIMUM 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 80 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. GIVEN THE AIRCRAFT
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT. SUBSEQUENT
FLIGHT-LEVEL DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INDICATE DRIER AIR PENETRATING
THE INNER CORE OF THE SYSTEM. A DRY/STABLE AIR MASS INTRUDING FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAVE CERTAINLY INDUCED
RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...AND BUD COULD WEAKEN BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...RAPID DECAY
IS EXPECTED AS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO SEPARATES THE
MID- AND SURFACE-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. BUD IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME
A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN 72-96 HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BLEND THE LGEM AND THE DECAY SHIPS
GUIDANCE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/06. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  BUD SHOULD CONTINUE ON A
NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.
AFTER BUD MAKES LANDFALL...THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST AS A DEPRESSION AND
ULTIMATELY A REMNANT LOW.
 
GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF BUD WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS MUDSLIDES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...REGARDLESS OF
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 19.2N 105.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 19.9N 105.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 24H  26/1800Z 20.1N 105.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  27/0600Z 20.1N 105.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  27/1800Z 19.9N 105.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1800Z 19.4N 106.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
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