Hurricane BUD

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HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
200 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012
 
THE EYE OF BUD IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AND
THE COLDEST CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC AROUND THE
ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT...
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DVORAK
FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. BUD IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN UNTIL LANDFALL AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL AIRMASS. AFTER LANDFALL...RAPID WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO. BUD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW IN 3 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 4...HOWEVER THIS COULD OCCUR
SOONER. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DECAY SHIPS AND
LGEM GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/07...AS BUD IS BEING STEERED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH
ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED...AS BUD SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.
AFTER THAT TIME THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE SPREAD...HOWEVER THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE SCENARIO WHERE THE LOW-
AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF BUD WILL DECOUPLE...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND BACK OFFSHORE UNTIL
DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH LANDFALL...DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION. AT 48 THROUGH 72 HOURS...A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER RE-EMERGES
OVER THE WATER. 

GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF BUD WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS MUDSLIDES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...REGARDLESS OF
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 17.6N 105.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 18.6N 105.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 19.7N 105.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 36H  26/1800Z 19.9N 105.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  27/0600Z 19.8N 105.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  28/0600Z 19.5N 105.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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