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Hurricane BUD


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
800 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BUD HAS
EVOLVED INTO AN ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH LITTLE TO NO OUTER BANDING
FEATURES. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH AN EYE BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED
IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T6.0/115 KT FROM
TAFB...T5.5/102 KT FROM SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES HAVE BEEN
AVERAGING T5.7/107 KT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. ALSO...AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON ITS FINAL OUTBOUND LEG
OBSERVED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 120 KT IN THE EASTERN
QUADRANT. SFMR SURFACE WINDS IN THAT SAME AREA WERE ONLY AROUND 85
KT...WHICH IS MUCH LOWER THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT USING THE STANDARD
90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR. THIS WAS LIKELY DUE TO SOME
NORTHEASTWARD TILT TO AND ELONGATION OF THE EYE...AND THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED MARKEDLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A 24/2229Z TRMM
OVERPASS INDICATED A CIRCULAR EYE OF ABOUT 20 NMI DIAMETER.
ALTHOUGH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT...
THERE IS LIKELY ENOUGH CONVECTION TO MIX DOWN AT LEAST 85 PERCENT
OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...WHICH SUPPORTS MAKING BUD A 100-KT
MAJOR HURRICANE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030 DEGREES AT 9 KT. BUD IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
TO ITS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON BUD
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN 24-30
HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH THE
GFS AND THE REGIONAL MODELS TAKING BUD INLAND OVER MEXICO WHILE THE 
ECMWF AND UKMET BRING THE EXPECTED REMNANTS OF BUD BACK OVER WATER
BY 48-72 HOURS. GIVEN THAT THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF BUD TO DECOUPLE
SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL...WITH THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS
CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACKS AND THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS BY
TURNING BUD SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BY 36 HOURS AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL.
 
BUD HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AND SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD ENSUE
BY 12 HOURS OR SO AS MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR IMPINGE ON THE SMALL INNER CORE OF THIS ANNULAR HURRICANE.
HOWEVER...BUD IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT
MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. FASTER WEAKENING WILL
OCCUR ONCE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BUD DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAYS 3-4...
IF NOT SOONER.
 
GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF BUD WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS MUD SLIDES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 17.1N 105.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 18.1N 105.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 19.4N 105.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 20.2N 105.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 48H  27/0000Z 20.3N 105.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  28/0000Z 19.5N 105.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  29/0000Z 19.1N 105.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:09 UTC