ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 800 PM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012 ALETTA HAS ONE WEAKENING PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SO IT STILL QUALIFIES...ALBEIT BARELY...AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. CONTINUED STRONG SHEAR AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR...AS SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEMISE OF THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TOMORROW. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...045/03...IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OR REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN EASTWARD...AND THEN SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 14.5N 113.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 14.5N 112.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/0000Z 14.0N 112.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/1200Z 13.3N 112.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/0000Z 12.4N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:04 UTC