ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 800 AM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012 FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF ALETTA IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO 20-25 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT. THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED SHEAR AND MID/ UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD CAUSE ALETTA TO DECAY INTO A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 12-24 H...WITH THE REMNANTS BEING ABSORBED BY A LARGER DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST IN 72-96 H. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/5. ALETTA REMAINS IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 H AS THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 14.2N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 14.4N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 14.4N 112.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0000Z 14.0N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1200Z 13.1N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z 11.5N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:04 UTC