Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression ALETTA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012
800 PM PDT THU MAY 17 2012
 
DEEP CONVECTION INCREASED OVER AND AROUND THE CENTER OF ALETTA A FEW
HOURS AGO...BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE ON THE WANE.  THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO LACK BANDING FEATURES...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB GIVE AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT.  THE
CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND VERY DRY AIR LIES
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  AS THIS AIR BECOMES MORE
ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF ALETTA...CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW IN A DAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
LGEM GUIDANCE AND IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN 3-4 DAYS OR
SOONER AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION TO ITS
EAST.

THE HEADING OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO VEER TO THE RIGHT...
WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW ABOUT 020/5.  STEERING
CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY DIVERGENT. 
HOWEVER...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THAT ALETTA
OR ITS REMNANT WILL TURN EASTWARD DUE TO LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH A LARGER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO ITS EAST IN 2-3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0300Z 13.6N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 13.9N 114.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 14.1N 113.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/1200Z 14.1N 113.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/0000Z 13.7N 112.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0000Z 12.8N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:04 UTC