ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 800 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012 THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGES WITH LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES. A STRONG BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY FORMED OVER A SMALL AREA JUST NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON DVORAK RULES AND THE ASCAT PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY...WHICH INDICATED THAT ALETTA WAS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN IT LOOKED. DRY AIR AND SOUTHERLY SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO TAKE THEIR TOLL ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ALETTA SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION VERY SOON...AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS OR LESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MOST RECENT LGEM RUN AND IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES WESTWARD...280/8...FOR THE TIME BEING. A WEAKNESS IN THE MID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALETTA SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTERWARDS...A BROAD LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IS LIKELY TO CARRY ALETTA...OR ITS REMNANT...EASTWARD OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE SYSTEM LOSES ITS IDENTITY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 11.5N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 12.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 12.6N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 13.2N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 13.6N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z 14.0N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0000Z 13.5N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:03 UTC