ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 200 AM PDT WED MAY 16 2012 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND ON IR IMAGES BUT RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT IT COULD BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN AREA OF CONVECTION. NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AWAY FROM THE ALLEGED CENTER...BUT ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF INCREASING ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING ADVERSE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND DRY AIR APPROACHES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING...CLOSE TO THE RATE SUGGESTED BY THE LGEM GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 285/8. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NEW GUIDANCE INSISTS ON A TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST BEYOND 36 HOURS AS ALETTA BECOMES STEERED BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS TRACK WAS ALREADY INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AND IS EMPHASIZED IN THIS ONE. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT THE CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND MEANDERS INSTEAD AS IT DEGENERATES INTO A REMANT LOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 11.9N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 12.0N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 12.4N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 12.8N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 13.0N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 14.0N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z 15.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:03 UTC