Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression ONE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012
200 PM PDT MON MAY 14 2012
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED.  THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS HAS PERSISTED AND EXPANDED...
WHILE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED IN RECENT HOURS.  THERE IS ALSO
EVIDENCE OF INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING...THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS BELIEVED TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BE NAMED ON THE NEXT
ADVISORY PACKAGE.  THE DEPRESSION HAS A NARROW WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS TO INTENSIFY. AFTER
THAT TIME...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...ACCOMPANIED BY A CONSIDERABLE
INCREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE INCREASING SHEAR
SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 4-5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE...WHICH
CONTINUES TO FORECAST LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 280/07.  THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
UNDER THE EASTERN END OF A WELL-DEFINED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER
THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION
ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD HEADING WITH SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER WEAKENING
COMMENCES...THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD DECREASE...
WITH THE GFS HINTING THAT THE WEAKENED CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS
COULD EVEN TURN EASTWARD INTO AN ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BY LATE THIS WEEK. 
THE OFFICIAL NHC IS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.
  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 10.0N 107.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 10.3N 108.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 10.7N 110.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 11.0N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 11.3N 115.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 11.6N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 12.0N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:03 UTC