Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm TONY


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012
1100 AM AST THU OCT 25 2012
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF TONY HAS DETERIORATED SINCE LAST
NIGHT.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION  DUE TO NEARLY 40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR.  THE MAIN CLOUD SHIELD...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE THE
TYPICAL BAROCLINIC LEAF...SUGGESTS THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
NEARLY COMPLETE. THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT BASED UPON A
BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.  EVEN STRONGER SHEAR
AND MUCH COLDER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE TONY TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  TONY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY AND SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE
BAROCLINIC LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/20. EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYER
OF WESTERLY FLOW...TONY IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED ON AN
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY COURSE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
UNTIL THE CYCLONE LOSES ITS IDENTITY.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...FOLLOWING THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 31.0N  36.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 31.6N  33.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  26/1200Z 32.5N  30.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  27/0000Z 33.2N  27.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:58 UTC