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Tropical Storm TONY


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012
1100 AM AST WED OCT 24 2012
 
SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF TONY HAS
INCREASED SOME IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE
CYCLONE IS COMPRISED OF AN ELONGATED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...A
WELL-DEFINED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND A DRY SLOT
FORMING IN BETWEEN.  A 1123 UTC SSMI/S IMAGE SHOWED A PARTIAL
MID-LEVEL EYE BUT SUGGESTED THAT THIS FEATURE WAS WAS DISPLACED A
LITTLE TO NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A CONSENSUS 3.0 FROM BOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES
AND UW-CIMSS ADT CI VALUES ARE 2.8.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 45 KT.
 
TONY IS ENCOUNTERING IN EXCESS OF 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GREATLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER WATERS.
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A FRONTAL ZONE ENCROACHING ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION OF TONY...SUGGESTING THAT
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION HAS LIKELY ALREADY BEGUN OR WILL BEGIN
SOON. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
SHOULD BE COMPLETE IN AS SOON AS 24 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS JUST BELOW THE LGEM AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS...
SHOWING TONY AS POST-TROPICAL BY 36 HOURS.
 
TONY HAS ACCELERATED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 055/17. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EMBEDDED IN A
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS A
SPLIT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AFTER 36 HOURS...WITH A FEW MODELS
SWINGING TONY AROUND A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW FORMING OVER NORTH
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...A MAJORITY SHOW POST-TROPICAL TONY BYPASSING
THIS FEATURE AND CONTINUING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EAST-
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS
SHIFTED EASTWARD AFTER 36 HOURS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 28.5N  45.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 29.5N  42.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 30.8N  39.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  26/0000Z 32.1N  35.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  26/1200Z 33.7N  32.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  27/1200Z 37.0N  29.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:58 UTC