Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm TONY


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 23 2012
 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS INCREASED AND BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE BANDING
FEATURES ARE NOW BETTER DEFINED. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE
T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE LATEST ADT VALUES FROM
UW-CIMSS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 35 KT...MAKING THE CYCLONE
TROPICAL STORM TONY.
 
TONY ONLY HAS A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A DRIER AIRMASS AND STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE TONY TO LEVEL OFF IN
INTENSITY. A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED
N MI NORTHWEST OF TONY IS ANTICIPATED TO INTERACT OR MERGE WITH THE
SYSTEM IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS THEREFORE
SHOWN AT 48 HOURS...AND DISSIPATION IS NOW PREDICTED TO OCCUR BY
DAY 4...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM HAS TURNED TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW BETWEEN
AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...CAUSING
TONY TO TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE IN THE MORE ZONAL
FLOW. A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST IN A FEW DAYS AS THE
FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE BEGINS TO ROTATE AROUND A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...CLOSE TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
 
THE 12-FT SEAS DENOTED IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY ARE THE RESULT OF
WIND WAVES GENERATED BY TONY INTERACTING WITH SWELL FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0300Z 26.7N  49.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 27.7N  47.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 28.8N  44.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 29.9N  41.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 31.1N  38.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  27/0000Z 35.0N  34.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:58 UTC