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Tropical Storm RAFAEL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012               
0900 UTC SAT OCT 13 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       1       2       2       1       3       4      11
TROP DEPRESSION 17      17      14       8      10      10      25
TROPICAL STORM  81      74      70      57      55      55      50
HURRICANE        2       7      14      33      32      31      14
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        2       7      12      26      25      24      12
HUR CAT 2        X       1       2       5       5       5       1
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       2       2       2       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   40KT    45KT    50KT    60KT    60KT    60KT    50KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  35(37)   1(38)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   1(13)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PONCE          34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X  12(12)   9(21)   2(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)
SAN JUAN       50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  1  54(55)   7(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X  12(12)   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  8  57(65)   2(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
SAINT CROIX    50  1  11(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X  14(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  2   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
AVES           34 88   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN                                               
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