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Tropical Storm RAFAEL (Text)


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TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
800 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012
 
...RAFAEL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 65.5W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
TODAY...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA BY LATE TUESDAY.
 
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT RAFAEL IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH....AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE TODAY.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED
STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SWELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA BEGINNING LATER TODAY 
AND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE 
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. 
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN

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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:52 UTC