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Tropical Storm RAFAEL (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
800 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012
 
...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...21.4N 64.5W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST.  RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY ON MONDAY.  ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA LATE
TUESDAY.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE ON MONDAY.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
 
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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