Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm RAFAEL


ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
200 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012
 
...OUTER BANDS OF RAFAEL STILL PRODUCING RAIN OVER THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 64.4W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH BERMUDA ON TUESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  NOAA BUOY 41043...
LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...HAS RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 
47 MPH...75 KM/H.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
 
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE 
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:52 UTC