Hurricane RAFAEL

ZCZC MIATCMAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
0300 UTC WED OCT 17 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N  62.5W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  25 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 360SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N  62.5W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N  63.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 36.2N  59.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 120SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 40.9N  54.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 44.9N  46.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 120SE 120SW  70NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 210SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 48.5N  36.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  70NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 270SW 270NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 53.5N  31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE 120SW  90NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 420SW 360NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 49.0N  34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 43.0N  30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N  62.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
NNNN