Hurricane RAFAEL

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HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
1500 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N  64.5W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT  21 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE  90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 390SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N  64.5W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N  64.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.7N  62.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 36.5N  59.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 110SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 41.5N  53.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  90SW  60NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 45.5N  44.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW  30NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 240SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 50.5N  30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...100NE  60SE 130SW  50NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 270SW 200NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 51.0N  32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 44.0N  29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N  64.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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