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Tropical Storm RAFAEL


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TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
2100 UTC MON OCT 15 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N  65.8W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE  80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 210SE 240SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N  65.8W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N  65.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.1N  65.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.4N  64.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 33.7N  61.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 39.0N  57.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW  80NW.
34 KT...220NE 250SE 180SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 47.0N  41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 180SE 140SW   0NW.
34 KT...240NE 360SE 320SW 300NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 48.0N  27.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 48.0N  25.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N  65.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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