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Tropical Storm RAFAEL (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
1500 UTC MON OCT 15 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  65.7W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE  80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 210SE 150SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  65.7W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  65.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 24.5N  65.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.4N  64.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.9N  63.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.4N  59.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 43.5N  47.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 150SE  90SW  60NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 180SW 160NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 47.0N  31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 47.0N  20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N  65.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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