Tropical Storm RAFAEL

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TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
0900 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...SABA...
ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTIN...AND ST. MARTIN
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAFAEL....AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  63.8W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  63.8W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  63.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.7N  64.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 22.5N  65.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 24.1N  66.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.1N  65.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 36.2N  60.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE  90SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 46.1N  52.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 50.4N  44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N  63.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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