Tropical Storm RAFAEL

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TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
2100 UTC SAT OCT 13 2012

CORRECTED TO ADD 50 KT RADII AT 12 HR
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  63.3W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  63.3W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N  63.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.7N  63.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.9N  64.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 22.6N  66.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 24.4N  66.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 31.5N  64.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 43.0N  57.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 50.5N  48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N  63.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 
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