Tropical Storm RAFAEL

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TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
2330 UTC FRI OCT 12 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U. S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE ISLANDS OF SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
MARTIN...GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE...AND
MARTINIQUE.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  63.1W AT 12/2330Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  35 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  63.1W AT 12/2330Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N  62.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.2N  63.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.0N  64.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.6N  64.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 21.4N  65.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.0N  67.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 32.5N  65.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 43.0N  57.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N  63.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN
 
 
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