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Tropical Storm NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  84
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012
 
STRONG SHEAR CONTINUES OVER NADINE...AND THE CENTER IS NOW
COMPLETELY SEPARATED FROM A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL VIGOROUS...AND RECENT ASCAT DATA
SUGGEST WINDS ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER THIS
MORNING. STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATER SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING...
AND NADINE MOST LIKELY WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT
36 HOURS OR MUCH EARLIER BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. 

NADINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST OR 080 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT. THE TROPICAL STORM IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE...BUT SOON NADINE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTH AROUND THE LOW WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. TRACK
MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO PRIMARILY FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH NADINE IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER...AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
AZORES TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 35.1N  33.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 36.8N  31.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 40.5N  28.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 44.5N  26.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  05/1200Z 47.0N  26.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  06/1200Z 48.0N  28.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:45 UTC