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Tropical Storm NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  80
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 02 2012
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NADINE
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS A RING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WRAPS AROUND A RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 AND 65 KT...RESPECTIVELY FROM SAB AND
TAFB...SUGGESTING THAT NADINE COULD BE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
BEFORE.  HOWEVER...EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND RECENT AMSU INTENSITY
ESTIMATES LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS MAINTAINED.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
HOSTILE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK.  AS A RESULT...SLOW WEAKENING IS PREDICTED IN THE NHC
FORECAST...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  NADINE
SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER SSTS BELOW 20C AFTER
PASSING THE AZORES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE POST-TROPICAL LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.
 
NADINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KT...BUT AN
EASTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED VERY SOON.  BY WEDNESDAY...THE STORM 
SHOULD BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH THAT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  NADINE 
IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE
TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY
NEAR THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED BASED ON THE
EARLIER ASCAT DATA.
   
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 34.2N  37.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 34.4N  36.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 35.3N  34.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 37.1N  31.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 40.7N  28.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 46.5N  28.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:45 UTC