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Tropical Storm NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  78
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 PM AST MON OCT 01 2012
 
THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF NEVER-ENDING NADINE HAS MADE A
COMEBACK THIS EVENING WITH A NEARLY CLOSED RING OF CONVECTION...
WITH CLOUD TOPS TO NEAR -60C HAVING DEVELOPED AROUND THE OLD EYE
FEATURE. MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO CONFIRMS THIS RECENT
RE-DEVELOPMENT TREND. ALTHOUGH DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB
HAVE DECREASED TO 3.0/45 KT...THE RECENT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF EYEWALL
CONVECTION ARGUES THAT THE INTENSITY BE MAINTAINED AT 55 KT...
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE CYCLONE IS JUST NOW ENTERING THE NOCTURNAL
CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD. THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON TWO CONSECUTIVE 34-KT WIND REPORTS
FROM SHIP VRBU6...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH 01/2210Z SSMIS-DERIVED
SURFACE WINDS CO-LOCATED IN THAT SAME AREA.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 125/05 KT. NOMADIC NADINE HAS
FINALLY MADE THE ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND. AS THE TROUGH/LOW DEEPENS WHILE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD
TO THE WEST OF THE AZORES...THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD ACCELERATE NADINE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST ON DAYS 2 AND 3. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A
COUNTERCLOCKWISE MOTION AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE AMPLIFYING
EXTRATROPICAL LOW ON DAY 4 AND DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY THE
LARGER SYSTEM ON DAY 5. THE NHC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS DEVELOPING TRACK SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
LIES BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15.
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NADINE HAS FOUND A SWEET SPOT OF
LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED BENEATH
THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS 
SHELTERING OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED
AS THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD AND EXPOSES NADINE TO
HOSTILE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONDITIONS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE INCREASING SHEAR COUPLED
WITH DECREASING SSTS SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING.  AFTER 48
HOURS...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SSTS COLDER THAN 20C...
WHICH SHOULD FINALLY BRING ABOUT THE PERMANENT DEMISE OF THIS
RESILIENT AND LONG-LASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS A BLEND
OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 34.7N  38.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 34.2N  38.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 34.2N  36.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 34.9N  34.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 36.7N  31.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...SOUTHWEST OF AZORES
 72H  05/0000Z 44.0N  26.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  06/0000Z 48.0N  27.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  07/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:45 UTC