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Tropical Storm NADINE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  63
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 AM AST FRI SEP 28 2012
 
NADINE IS APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH SATELLITE IMAGES
HAVING HINTS OF AN EYE ON THE INFRARED CHANNEL DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE STORM HAS AN INNER
CORE AND A MOSTLY CLOSED EYEWALL.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO
60 KT...NEAR THE LATEST CIMSS MICROWAVE ESTIMATES.  WHILE THE SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK TO MODERATE...SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY
COOL...WHICH WILL PROBABLY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE NHC FORECAST LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY AT
60 KT...ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
IF NADINE BECAME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY.  IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE STORM SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH.  NADINE WILL ALSO BE MOVING
OVER COLDER WATERS....AND THESE FACTORS SHOULD START A WEAKENING
TREND.  THE NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED SOMEWHAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE
IN THE LONGER RANGE...CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.  

NADINE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KT.  A RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE
NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON SATURDAY. 
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST
48H OF THE FORECAST AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
PREDICTION.  AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
NADINE WILL STALL FOR A DAY OR SO AS IT WAITS FOR A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH.  THE FORECAST AIDS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED EASTWARD IN THE
LONGER RANGE...WITH THE UKMET NOW JOINING A PACK OF MODELS THAT
INCLUDES THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THIS SOLUTION.  THE
NOTABLE OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF...WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNUSUAL
SOUTHWARD CYCLONIC LOOP DUE TO NADINE MOVING WITHIN A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE
AND THE FACT THAT MORE MODELS ARE TRENDING EASTWARD...THE NHC
FORECAST WILL BE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTIONS FOR DAYS 4
AND 5...BUT IS STILL CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE LATEST DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0900Z 29.0N  34.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 29.6N  34.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 31.1N  35.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 32.9N  36.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 35.0N  36.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 36.4N  37.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z 36.5N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  03/0600Z 37.0N  35.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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