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Tropical Storm NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  62
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 PM AST THU SEP 27 2012
 
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN TONIGHT ON IR IMAGES IS THE
BEST IT HAS BEEN IN A WEEK.  NADINE LOOKS MORE LIKE A TYPICAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND FAIR
OUTFLOW. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE 3.5 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE...INDICATING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. NADINE
HAS MANAGED TO AVOID OR REPEL THE SHEAR AND SURVIVED THE COOL
WATERS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY
GLOBAL MODELS TO DECREASE A LITTLE BIT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL
WEAKENING...BUT NOT MUCH...SHOULD THEN BEGIN IN 48 HOURS AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES NADINE AND INCREASES THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR.
THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LGEM AND THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS MODELS.
 
NADINE HAS SPENT A LARGE PORTION OF ITS LIFE TRAPPED WITHIN A
BLOCKING PATTERN. IT IS NOW SOUTH OF A RIDGE...AND IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. SOON IT WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE...AND THE CYCLONE WILL BE FORCED TO TURN SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE STORY DOES NOT END THERE...AND IT IS DEJA
VU ALL OVER AGAIN. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH NADINE...BUT IT WILL BYPASS THE CYCLONE...LEAVING
NADINE EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING FLOW AGAIN. CONSEQUENTLY...BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD NADINE MOST LIKELY WILL BE DRIFTING
AIMLESSLY SOUTHWEST AND FAR FROM AZORES. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER THAT...BOTH TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 28.8N  33.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 29.0N  34.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 30.4N  35.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 32.0N  36.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 34.0N  36.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 36.5N  37.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 36.5N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  03/0000Z 37.0N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:44 UTC