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Tropical Storm NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  59
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 AM AST THU SEP 27 2012
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT NADINE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH INCREASED CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLES.  DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NASA
GLOBAL HAWK SHOWED A LAYER OF 65-70 KT WINDS BETWEEN 850 AND 950 MB
NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THESE DATA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE IMPROVED
SATELLITE PRESENTATION...SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE A BIT
HIGHER...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 50 KT.  FURTHER
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ALTHOUGH ONLY
THE HWRF MAKES NADINE A HURRICANE AGAIN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ONLY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...A BIT ABOVE THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
FORECAST SEEMS CONSERVATIVE.  SOME WEAKENING COULD BEGIN IN A FEW
DAYS WHEN NADINE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 220/5.  THE STORM SHOULD TURN
WESTWARD LATER TODAY AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD ON FRIDAY AS IT REMAINS
STEERED BY A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  WHILE THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST THREE
DAYS...THE SPREAD INCREASES GREATLY BY DAY 5.  THIS SPREAD IS DUE
TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW NADINE INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW NADINE
RECURVING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET MODELS
INSTEAD SHOW NADINE MOVING SOUTHWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
AS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED BY THE TROUGH.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCES AND SHOWS LITTLE MOTION AT DAY 5...ALTHOUGH I FEAR
THAT NADINE WILL FIND A WAY TO LINGER EVEN LONGER OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.   

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0900Z 28.9N  31.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 28.5N  32.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 28.6N  33.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 29.4N  34.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 30.7N  35.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 33.5N  36.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  01/0600Z 35.4N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 35.5N  37.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:44 UTC