Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  58
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 26 2012
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NADINE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO A BAND
CURVING AROUND THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS
DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK...SUPPORT HOLDING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT. WHILE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SURROUND
NADINE...THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF WARMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...STRONGER SHEAR AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD TO LEAD TO WEAKENING. THE NHC FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE LGEM MODEL AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

NADINE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND THE LONG-TERM MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 220/5. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT NADINE WILL MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BY DAY 4...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WEAK
ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING CONDITIONS. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY AT THIS POINT...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A
SLOW EASTWARD MOTION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS...AND LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS IV15 AND FSSE.
 
THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 2338 ASCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 29.5N  31.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 28.8N  32.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 28.6N  33.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 29.1N  34.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 30.0N  35.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 33.0N  36.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  01/0000Z 35.5N  37.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  02/0000Z 36.0N  37.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ZELINSKY
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:44 UTC