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Tropical Storm NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  55
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 AM AST WED SEP 26 2012
 
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT A SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION
HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM...ALTHOUGH THE
BANDING HAS BECOME LESS WELL-DEFINED.  THE CURRENT WIND SPEED IS
KEPT AT 40 KT...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH EARLIER OSCAT DATA. PERHAPS
THIS NEW BURST IS A SIGN THAT NADINE IS ENTERING A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES OVER WARMER SSTS AND THE
SHEAR STAYS MODEST.  HOWEVER...THE STORM WILL LIKELY BE FIGHTING
SOME DRY STABLE AIR AS SUGGESTED BY A NEARBY STRATIFORM CLOUD DECK. 
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  AT LONG RANGE...THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN SSTS...SO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REDUCE THE WINDS SOMEWHAT AFTER DAY 3.  

NADINE CONTINUES MOVING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 4 KT. 
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE STORM
GRADUALLY TURNING FROM A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO A NORTHWESTWARD
HEADING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES AROUND A RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  HOWEVER...IMPORTANT SPEED
DIFFERENCES BECOME VERY CLEAR...WITH THE GFS MODEL AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN NOT MOVING NADINE AS FAR SOUTH AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE
SHORT TERM.  THIS SOLUTION TRANSLATES INTO NADINE BEING FAR ENOUGH
TO THE NORTH BY DAY 4 TO AVOID BEING CAUGHT BY YET ANOTHER
RIDGE...AND FINALLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER COLD
WATERS BY DAY 5.  OTHER MODELS...SUCH AS THE UKMET AND ECMWF...SHOW
THE STORM BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER A RIDGE...AGAIN...WITH LITTLE
MOTION BY 120H.  THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE SEEM OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE
PAST PERFORMANCE OF NADINE...BUT OVERALL THE GUIDANCE SUITE IS
MOVING THE STORM A LOT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS CYCLES. THE NHC
FORECAST HAS BEEN SPED UP FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS SLOWER
THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0900Z 30.9N  30.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 30.2N  30.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 29.2N  31.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 28.6N  32.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 28.8N  34.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 30.8N  35.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 33.5N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  01/0600Z 35.5N  37.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:44 UTC